Don’t Call It A Truce, This Is Why You Should Fade The Rally

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Don’t Call It A Truce, This Is Why You Should Fade The Rally

U.S. Equities Surge After The Trump/Xi Trade Truce

The U.S. equities surge to a new all-time high following the announced trade truce between President’s Trump and Xi. The truce means the two leaders will not impose new tariffs on each others goods, that restrictions on Huawei will be eased, and that negotiations between China and the U.S. are back on track. What it does not mean is the trade war is over or that previous tariffs will be lifted. What trades and investors need to remember is that global economic activity is slowing due to current trade relations and that situation is not ended.

Economic data released today proves the point. Chinese and EU manufacturing data shows activity in both regions has contracted again. With activity contracting the outlook for future GDP growth is souring and along with it expectations for future corporate earnings. Estimates for future earnings have been steadily falling over the past two months and now indicate negative growth in the first three quarters of 2020. Along with that growth estimates for 2020 and 2020 are falling and that is undermining the true value of the stock market.

What I’m trying to say is that the trade truce is great, the market rallying to new highs awesome, but it’s a situation where you’re better off taking profits or fading the market than you are jumping on board the rally. Economic activity will likely continue to slow up to and until a trade deal is actually struck. Even then, outlook for growth will not significantly brighten until there is proof economic activity is picking up. What this is creating is a buy-the-rumor/sell-the-news event. When the trade deal is struck, if it is struck, the market is going to sell off in a way reminiscent of the tech bubble bursting.

The Technical Picture Is Not Good

The S&P 500 technical picture is not good. The index did indeed move up to set a new all-time high but there are many red flags. The first is today’s gap higher, the move shows a rapid advance in sentiment on a Monday morning, the worst day for traders to follow in terms of making real profits. This move set’s the index up to form an abandoned baby, shooting star, or other resistance confirming formation but it’s not the real reason I fear correction.

The reason I fear correction is the wicked amount of divergence I see in the indicators. Both the MACD and Stochastic are diverging from the new high in a way that suggests not only a correction, but a deep, hard, swift downdraft in prices that could put the index into full reversal. Right now, there are support targets at 2,960, 2,940 and the short-term moving average. If these break down I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 move lower to retest levels near 2,720 or lower.

It says I’ll be breaking a truce but I don’t have a truce with them

check your own diplomatic window too. Had a problem with that once too a few days ago in my byz game. The truce with france ended and the flag was gone, but when i watched my own diplomatic window i still had 6years truce.

That was my own diplomatic window

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It might be a bug, but technically you’re attacking a vassal of Japan, and thus Japan itself. As you have a truce with Japan, you’re breaking that truce. I guess it’s just a display error.

Yeah but japan wouldnt be in the war cause of the whole daimyo situation so I guess I should just do it and see if it actually gives me -5 stab and stuff.

What Would Be Your ‘At-Bat’ Theme Song?

Hear The Songs

At spring training, No. 1 prospect Jason Hayward has been shattering car windows beyond right field. Maybe his at-bat song should be “Bust Your Window.” Mark Cunningham/Getty Images Sport hide caption

At spring training, No. 1 prospect Jason Hayward has been shattering car windows beyond right field. Maybe his at-bat song should be “Bust Your Window.”

Mark Cunningham/Getty Images Sport

Have you ever noticed that the songs the batters pick while stepping up to the plate are — for the most part — not always great? Between bites of overpriced chili dogs and desperate attempts to keep the wave going, there’s an assortment of jock rock, overplayed mainstream rap and “Sweet Home Alabama” (OK, we don’t mind that one).

Some players know how to pick ’em, though. The now-retired pitcher John Smoltz — best remembered by most of us as an Atlanta Brave — rotated Boston’s “More Than a Feeling” and AC/DC’s “Thunderstruck.” Even if Smoltz was just going to bunt, the crowd at least threw up their clenched fists in rock glory as he strode to the batter’s box.

If you had a stadium-pumping song for when you stepped up to the plate, what would it be? Tell us in the comments below. We put together our own NPR nine-song starting lineup to get you started.

What Would Be Your ‘At-Bat’ Theme Song?

Lars Gotrich, NPR Music (Right Field)

  • Song: Live to Win
  • from Ace of Spades [Deluxe Edition]
  • by Motörhead

Let’s be honest here: at any given stadium, the pimply guy pushing the “play” button doesn’t care that the best part of “The Way You Move” comes at 0:49. He starts the music at 00:00 and you better hope that the first 10 seconds — 15 if you’re strollin’ to the plate — are enough to energize your game and get the crowd rowdy. This is why Motorhead’s “Live to Win” is an all-out at-bat FTW. The bass riff snarls right out of the cage, prowls and then promptly pounces at the nine-second mark. Leading off the lineup, you need a riff to burn down the first base line.

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Jeffrey Katz, NPR Digital News (Second Base)

  • Song: Ready to Go
  • from Republica
  • by Republica

If I’ve just finished scraping the mud off my cleats and started to stride to the plate, staring at the pitcher, I want him to know I’m ready. Really ready. Republica sends the right message with a hard driving beat behind “Ready to Go.” You can’t help but draw energy from it. The no-nonsense lyrics underscore the point — give me your best stuff because it’s coming right back at you. Of course, you hope that a guy with a 95 mph fastball isn’t paying too much attention to the idea that I might think he’s weird, strange and insane.

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Robert Goldstein, NPR’s Music Librarian (Center Field)

  • Song: Back in Black
  • from Back in Black
  • by AC/DC

What player wouldn’t love to saunter bat in hand to home plate as a sellout crowd claps in time to the primal crushing chords of AC/DC’s “Back in Black” thundering from the stadium PA? The opposing pitcher can’t ignore the veiled taunt of the lyrics. Trying to rattle him, chanting fans echo the words: “Yes I’m back / Well, I’m back / Yes I’m back in black.” Angus Young spits out each swaggering guitar riff with gritty intensity, the theme for a tense at-bat that promises fans a wicked shot down the line for extra bases. (As an added advantage, the song color-coordinates with uniforms of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who, storied history notwithstanding, need all the help they can get.)

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Frannie Kelley, NPR Music (Shortstop)

  • Song: Mama Said Knock You Out
  • from
  • by

In trying to intimidate a pitcher and a whole ballpark full of people, my guess is it’s best to drag out your walk from the on-deck circle to the plate as long as possible. I might get a little nervous and start rushing, so I’d time myself to the intro on LL Cool J’s midcareer refutation of doubters, naysayers and latecomers to the party. I’d step out on “Don’t call it a comeback,” do a little shoulder rolling, spit a couple of times and stroll into the batter’s box just as the sound man fades out on “Listen to the bass go boom / Explosion.” The classic Clyde Stubblefield sample would sound extra funky echoing off whatever bleachers remain at the stadiums. And I really like the idea of invoking my mother right before I knock a grand slam.

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